Glossary
Red teaming in strategy
Red teaming in strategy is the practice of having a separate team argue against a plan as a competitor, a regulator, an investor or a customer would, to find how it could fail before it is adopted.
Glossary · Strategy term
Scenario planning
A plain definition, why it matters, how strategy1 uses it, and answers to the questions people ask most.
Definition
What is scenario planning?
Scenario planning is a method for preparing a strategy against several plausible futures rather than a single forecast. Teams describe a small set of distinct scenarios, test how their plan performs in each, and agree the early signals, or triggers, that would show which future is unfolding and when to act.
Also called: scenario analysis, strategic scenario planning.
Explained in full on Scenario & risk strategy.
Context
Why it matters
Forecasts give one number and invite planning for only the likeliest case. Scenarios show how a plan holds up when conditions such as regulation, prices or demand change, and triggers turn that insight into action rather than a one-off workshop.
In practice
How strategy1 uses it
strategy1 delivers scenario planning through ScenarioEngine: scenarios, not forecasts, with the triggers that tell a client when to act. The outputs are a scenario set and a trigger dashboard, with a named person to watch each trigger. On the retainer, scenarios are re-run before every monthly Strategy Council.
FAQ
Scenario planning: common questions
How many scenarios should a company plan for?
Usually three or four. Fewer tends to collapse into a base case with an upside and a downside; more becomes hard to act on. Each scenario should be distinct and plausible rather than a small variation on the forecast.
What is a trigger in scenario planning?
A trigger is an early, observable signal, such as a regulatory change, a price threshold or a competitor's move, agreed in advance as a sign that a particular scenario is unfolding. When a trigger is hit, the plan's agreed response comes into play.
Why do scenario plans fail?
Most often because scenarios are read as forecasts and only the likeliest one is planned for, or because triggers are set but no one is named to watch them. Scenario planning needs an owner and a review rhythm to change decisions.
Bring one real decision.Leave with a signed plan.
A 72-Hour Bootcamp takes one problem your team would scope in weeks and works it to a decision memo your leadership signs. Fixed scope, fixed fee.