Glossary
Evidence ledger
The evidence ledger is the record that links every number and claim in a strategy1 deliverable to its source, its date and the agent that produced it.
Glossary · strategy1 term
Confidence grade
A plain definition, why it matters, how strategy1 uses it, and answers to the questions people ask most.
Definition
What is a confidence grade?
A confidence grade is the rating strategy1 attaches to every key figure, showing how strongly its sources support it: from a verified primary source or the client's own data, through a credible secondary source, to a model estimate. Conclusions that rest on an estimate carry the same grade, so readers see where uncertainty sits.
Also called: confidence grading.
Explained in full on Evidence and trust.
Context
Why it matters
Not all numbers in a strategy are equally reliable, but most reports present them the same way. Grading each figure lets decision-makers see which conclusions rest on hard evidence and which on estimates, and where better evidence would change the answer.
In practice
How strategy1 uses it
Grades are set when facts enter the Strategy Twin and its evidence ledger at the Model stage. Where a figure cannot be sourced above a model estimate, it is labelled as an estimate wherever it appears. The sample decision memo on the Evidence and trust page shows a grade beside each key figure.
FAQ
Confidence grade: common questions
Is a model estimate a bad number?
No. A model estimate can be the best available figure, for example for a new market with little published data. Its confidence grade simply shows that it is an estimate, so the decision can weigh it accordingly and look for better evidence where it matters.
When is a confidence grade assigned?
At the Model stage of the S1 Method. AI agents tag every fact with its source and confidence as the Strategy Twin is built, and an ontology engineer reviews the structure at gate H1. The grade then travels with the figure into every deliverable.
How is a confidence grade different from a confidence interval?
A confidence interval is a statistical range around an estimate. A confidence grade describes the source behind a figure: a verified primary source or client data, a credible secondary source, or a model estimate. A figure can carry both.
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